CommunityScale

Notable trends in the 2024 ACS data release

The 2024 ACS took a little bit longer than usually to be released, but now that its out we had a chance to compare some of the significant differences between 2023 and 2024.

The American Community Survey is the gold standard for demographic and housing data, but its 5-year estimates inherently look backward — the 2024 release reflects conditions averaged across 2020-2024. CommunityScale’s methodology uses ACS and PUMS as a foundational layer and then supplements it with fresher, higher-frequency data for home values, rental indices, inventory metrics, FRED (mortgage rates and economic indicators), BLS (Consumer Price Index for inflation adjustment), and HUD (Area Median Income). By blending the ACS’s comprehensive demographic detail with these more current market signals, CommunityScale can produce housing forecasts and affordability analyses that are both demographically grounded and responsive to real-time market conditions.


Population

Source: acs2024_5yr.state_b01001 vs acs2023_5yr.state_b01001

The Sun Belt mega-trend continued

Texas added 548,080 people (+1.85%) and Florida added 487,197 (+2.22%) — together accounting for roughly half of all US growth. North Carolina (+146k), Georgia (+118k), and Arizona (+111k) rounded out the top five.

State2024 PopChange% Change
Texas30,188,424+548,080+1.85%
Florida22,416,077+487,197+2.22%
North Carolina10,730,404+146,064+1.38%
Georgia10,940,407+117,817+1.09%
Arizona7,378,838+110,663+1.52%
South Carolina5,296,225+83,451+1.60%
Tennessee7,066,383+80,301+1.15%
New Jersey9,343,809+76,795+0.83%
Washington7,816,116+75,132+0.97%
Utah3,392,331+61,144+1.84%

Shrinking states

New York was the only state that lost significant population (-19,954), followed by Louisiana (-9,064), West Virginia (-6,089), Mississippi (-4,659), and Hawaii (-400). Illinois barely held steady at +2,145.

State2024 PopChange% Change
New York19,852,366-19,954-0.10%
Louisiana4,611,961-9,064-0.20%
West Virginia1,778,373-6,089-0.34%
Mississippi2,946,779-4,659-0.16%
Hawaii1,445,235-400-0.03%
Illinois12,694,798+2,145+0.02%

Fastest-growing large cities (100k+)

Houston (+27.8k), Fort Worth (+21.9k), and San Antonio (+20.9k) led in absolute terms. Mobile, AL was a standout with a +9.9% growth rate, the highest among all cities over 100k. Other notable fast growers included Port St. Lucie, FL (+5.5%), Cape Coral, FL (+4.4%), and Frisco, TX (+4.3%).

City2024 PopChange% Change
Houston, TX2,328,253+27,834+1.21%
Fort Worth, TX963,194+21,883+2.32%
San Antonio, TX1,479,835+20,881+1.43%
Mobile, AL203,416+18,319+9.90%
Charlotte, NC903,844+17,561+1.98%
Phoenix, AZ1,642,323+17,491+1.08%
Jacksonville, FL977,670+15,931+1.66%
Miami, FL459,745+13,082+2.93%
Seattle, WA754,195+12,755+1.72%
Port St. Lucie, FL232,491+12,038+5.46%

Cities losing population

NYC lost the most people of any city (-32,358), followed by Memphis (-10,083) and San Francisco (-6,086). St. Louis, New Orleans, Baltimore, and Jackson, MS also posted notable declines.

City2024 PopChange% Change
New York, NY8,483,844-32,358-0.38%
Memphis, TN618,980-10,083-1.60%
San Francisco, CA830,235-6,086-0.73%
St. Louis, MO288,512-4,597-1.57%
New Orleans, LA371,853-4,182-1.11%
Baltimore, MD573,243-3,950-0.68%
Jackson, MS146,631-3,196-2.13%
Long Beach, CA455,548-2,943-0.64%
Milwaukee, WI566,973-2,783-0.49%
Philadelphia, PA1,579,706-2,726-0.17%

The Dallas-Fort Worth (+178k, +2.3%) and Houston (+168k, +2.3%) metros led, followed by Miami (+110k) and Phoenix (+88k). Austin (+2.9%) and Orlando (+2.7%) posted the highest growth rates among large metros. On the flip side, LA-Long Beach-Anaheim lost 38k people, and San Francisco-Oakland lost 8.6k.

Metro2024 PopChange% Change
Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX7,985,590+178,035+2.28%
Houston-Pasadena-The Woodlands, TX7,442,788+168,074+2.31%
Miami-Fort Lauderdale-WPB, FL6,249,291+110,415+1.80%
Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ5,028,754+87,548+1.77%
Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos, TX2,426,592+69,095+2.93%
Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL2,793,746+72,724+2.67%
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA12,974,487-37,982-0.29%
San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA4,645,029-8,564-0.18%
Pittsburgh, PA2,439,940-3,981-0.16%

Fastest-growing counties (50k+)

Almost entirely Texas and Florida. Kaufman County, TX led at +7.4%, followed by Rockwall (+5.7%), Liberty (+5.5%), Comal (+5.3%). Florida entries included Osceola (+5.0%), St. Johns (+5.0%), St. Lucie (+4.1%), and Flagler (+4.0%).

County2024 PopChange% Change
Kaufman County, TX172,604+11,886+7.40%
Rockwall County, TX123,617+6,686+5.72%
Liberty County, TX103,380+5,387+5.50%
Comal County, TX183,826+9,274+5.31%
Osceola County, FL427,415+20,472+5.03%
St. Johns County, FL306,934+14,691+5.03%
Montgomery County, TX684,432+29,710+4.54%
Williamson County, TX672,688+28,799+4.47%
Collin County, TX1,163,337+46,736+4.19%
Fort Bend County, TX893,767+34,046+3.96%

Mid-size cities grew fastest

Aggregating all places by population size category revealed that mid-size cities (10k-50k) grew fastest at +0.91%, outpacing megacities (500k+) at just +0.40%.

Size Category# PlacesPop 2024Change% Change
500k+3744,650,833+179,965+0.40%
100k-500k30955,725,606+441,954+0.80%
50k-100k53137,136,569+330,789+0.90%
10k-50k3,33071,215,055+644,735+0.91%
Under 10k27,63245,714,809+241,649+0.53%

Housing

Source: acs2024_5yr.place_b25001 vs acs2023_5yr.place_b25001

Housing unit construction leaders

NYC added the most housing units (+28,590) despite losing population — a significant divergence suggesting new supply may have helped offset demand pressure. Austin (+16,643, +3.6%) and Nashville (+11,720, +3.5%) were also on building sprees. Seattle (+10,985, +2.9%) and Minneapolis (+5,863, +2.9%) stood out in the north.

City2024 UnitsChange% Change
New York, NY3,678,486+28,590+0.78%
Houston, TX1,040,576+17,464+1.71%
Los Angeles, CA1,554,332+17,298+1.13%
Austin, TX483,071+16,643+3.57%
Nashville, TN344,794+11,720+3.52%
Seattle, WA393,918+10,985+2.87%
Phoenix, AZ653,065+10,198+1.59%
San Antonio, TX612,901+9,688+1.61%
San Diego, CA568,668+9,015+1.61%
Chicago, IL1,277,054+8,855+0.70%

Vacancy rates tightened almost everywhere

Vacancy rates fell across nearly all states, with Wyoming (-1.23 pp) and North Dakota (-1.03 pp) seeing the largest drops. Only DC saw a notable vacancy increase (+0.42 pp), suggesting its office-to-residential conversions or new supply may have outpaced demand.

State2024 Vacancy2023 VacancyChange (pp)
District of Columbia10.1%9.7%+0.42
Wyoming12.2%13.4%-1.23
North Dakota12.3%13.3%-1.03
Rhode Island9.1%9.8%-0.72
Vermont19.4%20.1%-0.70
West Virginia15.4%16.1%-0.67

Multi-family share grew in unexpected places

DC (+0.64 pp), South Dakota (+0.50 pp), Washington (+0.46 pp), and North Dakota (+0.44 pp) saw the biggest increases in 5+ unit multi-family share. Florida’s multi-family share was essentially flat (-0.03 pp) despite huge population growth, meaning the state absorbed growth primarily through single-family construction.

State2024 MF Share2023 MF ShareChange (pp)
District of Columbia56.9%56.3%+0.64
South Dakota16.2%15.7%+0.50
Washington22.2%21.7%+0.46
North Dakota25.1%24.6%+0.44
Colorado22.6%22.2%+0.40
Florida24.5%24.5%-0.03

Home Values

State-level appreciation

Tennessee (+11.6%), North Carolina (+11.4%), Maine (+11.3%), and Idaho (+11.3%) led state-level home value appreciation. Every state saw increases, but DC had the slowest at just +1.7%.

State2024 MedianChange% Change
Tennessee$286,700+$29,900+11.6%
North Carolina$288,900+$29,500+11.4%
Maine$296,600+$30,200+11.3%
Idaho$418,600+$42,600+11.3%
Montana$375,800+$37,700+11.2%
Georgia$303,300+$30,400+11.1%
Florida$359,000+$34,000+10.5%
District of Columbia$737,100+$12,500+1.7%
North Dakota$249,900+$8,800+3.6%
Louisiana$216,500+$7,800+3.7%

City-level: expensive markets hit a ceiling

Among cities over 250k, Tampa (+12.0%), Mesa (+12.0%), and Winston-Salem (+12.3%) saw the strongest appreciation. Meanwhile, the most expensive coastal markets saw minimal gains: San Francisco (+1.0%), Oakland (+0.6%), DC (+1.7%), Seattle (+2.9%), and Boston (+3.0%).

City2024 Median ValueChange% Change
Winston-Salem, NC$233,800+$25,600+12.3%
Mesa, AZ$408,000+$43,700+12.0%
Tampa, FL$420,400+$45,100+12.0%
Phoenix, AZ$420,700+$38,800+10.2%
San Francisco, CA$1,394,500+$14,000+1.0%
Oakland, CA$929,900+$5,200+0.6%
Washington, DC$737,100+$12,500+1.7%
Seattle, WA$938,600+$26,500+2.9%
Boston, MA$731,700+$21,300+3.0%

Income

Median household income gains

Newark, NJ saw the biggest jump (+7.5%), followed by Santa Ana, CA (+6.4%) and Fresno, CA (+6.3%). Most Arizona cities posted strong gains (Phoenix +5.6%, Mesa +5.0%, Glendale +4.8%, Tucson +4.6%).

San Francisco was the only major city where median income actually fell (-0.3%), alongside very slow growth in St. Paul (+0.5%) and Minneapolis (+0.7%).

City2024 MHIChange% Change
Newark, NJ$52,060+$3,644+7.5%
Santa Ana, CA$93,999+$5,645+6.4%
Fresno, CA$70,991+$4,187+6.3%
Tampa, FL$75,475+$4,173+5.9%
Phoenix, AZ$81,332+$4,291+5.6%
San Francisco, CA$140,970-$476-0.3%
St. Paul, MN$73,394+$339+0.5%
Minneapolis, MN$80,846+$577+0.7%
Omaha, NE$73,201+$493+0.7%
Detroit, MI$39,938+$363+0.9%

Demographics

Source: acs2024_5yr.state_b01001 vs acs2023_5yr.state_b01001

Every state got older

The 65+ share increased in every single state. New Hampshire (+0.65 pp to 20.1%) and Vermont (+0.64 pp to 21.4%) aged fastest. The fast-growing Sun Belt states aged the slowest — Florida (+0.22 pp), Texas (+0.26 pp), Utah (+0.24 pp) — because in-migration of younger workers kept their age profiles young. DC had the smallest shift (+0.07 pp) and remained the youngest at 12.8% senior share.

State2024 Senior %2023 Senior %Change (pp)
New Hampshire20.1%19.5%+0.65
Vermont21.4%20.8%+0.64
Delaware20.6%20.0%+0.57
Hawaii20.5%19.9%+0.55
Maine22.4%21.9%+0.50
Florida21.3%21.1%+0.22
Texas13.4%13.2%+0.26
Utah11.9%11.6%+0.24
District of Columbia12.8%12.7%+0.07

Tenure

Source: acs2024_5yr.place_b25003 vs acs2023_5yr.place_b25003

Renter/owner shifts among major cities

Austin (+0.99 pp) and Memphis (+1.11 pp) shifted most toward renting, while Las Vegas (-0.93 pp), North Las Vegas (-0.98 pp), and Cincinnati (-0.89 pp) shifted most toward homeownership.

City2024 Renter %2023 Renter %Shift (pp)
Memphis, TN55.1%54.0%+1.11
Austin, TX56.6%55.6%+0.99
Jersey City, NJ72.1%71.2%+0.86
Portland, OR48.0%47.2%+0.85
North Las Vegas, NV36.4%37.3%-0.98
Las Vegas, NV43.4%44.3%-0.93
Cincinnati, OH60.2%61.1%-0.89
Kansas City, MO44.6%45.4%-0.79

The Big Picture

The overarching story from 2023 to 2024: the Sun Belt boom continued unabated while coastal superstar cities and Rust Belt metros stagnated or shrank. But a new wrinkle emerged — the most expensive coastal markets (San Francisco, Oakland, NYC) saw near-zero home value appreciation and population loss even as they continued to add housing units, while mid-tier Sun Belt cities saw double-digit home value appreciation and population surges. This convergence may signal a structural repricing of where Americans want to live.

Meanwhile, every state in America aged, vacancy tightened nearly everywhere, and mid-size cities (10k-50k) grew faster than megacities suggesting a broad-based dispersal of growth beyond just the biggest metros.


Data Dictionary

ACS TableDescriptionKey Fields Used
B01001Sex by Ageb01001001 (total pop), b01001020-025 + b01001044-049 (65+)
B19013Median Household Incomeb19013001
B25001Housing Unitsb25001001 (total units)
B25002Occupancy Statusb25002003 (vacant units)
B25003Tenureb25003001 (total occ.), b25003003 (renter-occ.)
B25024Units in Structureb25024001 (total), b25024006-009 (5+ unit structures)
B25077Median Value (Owner-Occ.)b25077001

All queries compare acs2024_5yr schema (2020-2024 ACS 5-year estimates) against acs2023_5yr schema (2019-2023 ACS 5-year estimates).

By

Nels Nelson, co-founding Principal at CommunityScale, is passionate about planning happier, healthier, and more resilient places. His goal today? Optimizing community strategies with data-driven techniques. His diverse clients appreciate his swift, accurate, and transparent insights.